The brewery bubble

       Much is being made over the craft beer bubble.  If it will burst, when it will burst, is it sustainable?  While most are focused on the industry, as a whole, and comparing it to the cigar boom, this isn't an accurate comparison.  The reason is distribution and availability.  While whole dissertations could be written on the faults and merits of the three tier distribution system; it is a moot point, in terms of local brewery's being sustainable.  Just to get the Bona Fides out of the way, I have an MBA from Columbia College of Missouri, so I'm not just some random internet guy spouting off.  (Well, technically I am, but I'm a qualified, random, internet guy spouting off).

       What I will do is compare the craft beer industry to Chinese take out, or other "perfect competition" businesses.  The way it works is that, a Chinese takeout place, while each selling a unique version of a product, essentially sells the same things.  You may have preferences, and make the drive to a "better" restaurant, because, to you, it's worth it.  But in the end, you have a business with functionally identical products, (or at least the capacity to create them, with no change in costs), no barriers to entry, subject to market pricing, and an informed consumer.

       Using this as an example, one thing becomes immediately clear, the craft beer boom will only be sustainable if we stop demanding our favorite breweries have national, or even regional, distribution.  Requiring this will cause only the least offensive, most watered down versions to survive.  I'm guessing your favorite Chinese restaurant isn't Panda Express.  Using the same economic principles that apply to that perfect competition, we should not expect craft brewers to distribute at all.

      My point is, fellow drinkers, if you want your favorite local brewery to prosper, don't pressure them to distribute package goods until they're ready.  Do visit them frequently.  And by all means, if you live in a state with its head up its ass about growlers (as do I, in Illinois), write your state representatives about it.  But please, please, allow the little guys to be little.  The market can only accommodate all of them if they operate like Chinese restaurants, or we'll end up with another beer version of McDonald's.  (Not that I won't eat there under the right conditions, but it's not my first choice: like Miller or Bud)