Illinois math

http://www.nwherald.com/2011/11/25/state-reaping-less-from-lottery-in-new-fiscal-year/alruvan/

       I don't normally begin with a link, but if you want to read the whole thing here you go.  Headlines are all something like: State Lottery revenues down for fiscal year.  Something like that.  Here are some excerpts.  I am using the one from my newspaper, but it was an Associated Press article, so it was everywhere.

       "The state's share of Illinois Lottery revenue dropped in three of the first four months of the fiscal year compared to the same period last year"

We are then assured this is only temporary.

"The state last year chose Northstar Lottery Group as the Illinois Lottery's first-ever private manager, promising that sales – and therefore the state's share of revenue – would increase."

A little history is presented. The comedic potential builds. Then the punchline:

"Northstar CEO Connie Laverty O'Connor said total sales are up 12 percent and instant ticket sales are up 23 percent, compared to last year"

This is odd since the State's revenues are down... Some clarification please.

"O'Connor said the company still is paying expenses incurred last spring for advertising and equipment as it prepared to take over."

So a state lottery, which has existed for decades, needed advertising and equipment? Perhaps I don't fully understand. Perhaps there is full disclosure, and this is the truth.
William of Occam was a 14th century philosopher who is credited with a bit of logic we all know and love, even if we don't know the name. Occam's razor states that the simplest solution is probably correct. What would the simplest solution be here in the land of Honest Abe Lincoln? Let's read further...

"Reports show the state's share of lottery revenue dropped by $2 million in July, to $41 million; by $4 million in August, to $35 million; and by $6 million October, to $49 million. It rose by $6 million, to $59 million, in September."

       So down 2M, down 4M, down 6M, and up 6M. -2+ -4 + -6 + 6 = -6. The state of Illinois is down a net of 6 million dollars, in a year when total sales are up 12%. The article does not state what the total sales were however. But hey this is the internet folks. 3,2,1...

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/illinois-lottery-breaks-new-sales-record-in-fiscal-year-2011-127726788.html

here is a good block quote...

"The Illinois Lottery ended fiscal year 2011 on June 30, with another record-breaking year – its ninth consecutive year of increasing sales. During fiscal year 2011, which ran from July 1, 2010 through June 30, 2011, the Lottery generated $2.278 billion in sales, an increase of 3% over last year. Over the past five-year period, since fiscal year 2007, Lottery sales have increased by more than 11%. "

You read that right. Another record year. 2.278 Billion, with a B, in annual sales. And the states share is 41M + 35M + 49M + 59M = 184 Million.

http://www.illinoislottery.com/subsections/news01.htm

The lottery's own page says that 58 cent of every dollar is paid as prizes, the state gets 30 cent, 7 cent is for retailer/ vendor commissions and bonuses, and 5 cent for administrative costs.

Some math, and some double checking later and we have, assuming the total sales of 2.278 billion, as reported: Total prize payout 1,321,240,000. (1.32124 B) Admin costs of 113,900,000 (113.9 M) Vendor take as 159,460,000 (159.46 M) and the State's share as 683,400,000 (683.4 M).

I may not know how to use the square root of -1 in an equation, but I know that 683.4 Million is a hell of a lot more than 184 million. 499.4 Million to be exact. That is 499,400,000 missing from the State's share. I think that the news needs to dig a bit deeper on this one. Why are we not gathering torches and pitchforks, and marching on Springfield? Corruption in Illinois is a big friggin' joke. It's funny too: right up until you realize who it's being played on.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/26/illinois-budget-watchdog-_n_981882.html

"In a statement announcing the report, Laurence Msall, Civic Federation president, described the state's recent budget process as "somewhat improved" over recent years, as the annual gap between revenue and expenses was significantly reduced -- from $3.9 billion to $454 million."

So the amount that the state is short is 45.4 million LESS than what they were shorted by the lottery.  

THAT IS A SURPLUS OF 45.4 MILLION.  Now that may not seem like much when the deficit is 8+ billion, but if each year we take in more than we spend we get out of the hole.  Instead, we are crawling further in.  

All numbers reported are as presented by Northstar lottery group and the Illinois lottery. All derivations are mine, so feel free to double check them. I did twice. All anger, ire, rage, and revolution should be directed toward the State of Illinois.

http://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/ContactUs.aspx

That's the address above. Please let them know how you feel. And remember this crap come the next election. Remind me: I'll re-run this post.

Thanksgiving

       Not this time.  No politics.  No shopping advice.  Today is a history lesson.  We will discuss the first Thanksgiving.  Something they should have taught in history class instead of revising what happened to fit our current sensibilities.  But that is another post.
       We know from historic records that the first Thanksgiving featured deer.  Five to be exact, provided by the Wampanoag  We know that it lasted three days.  We know that the same records indicate that four men went on a "fowling" expedition.  We know it was in 1621.
       We do not know what the "fowl" in question were.  We do not know what else was served.  We do not know much else actually.
       We can assume, infer, and suppose many things.  Since the colony was celebrating its first successful corn harvest, it is safe to infer it was on the menu.  Since they were in New England, it is safe to assume that there were clams, oysters, crabs, lobsters, and anything else that could be obtained from the sea.  It is safe to suppose that since sugar would have run out the year before, and the maple syrup that the Wampanoag taught the colonists to make is a springtime thing that there wasn't much sweet presented.  Unless it was provided by the already established Wampanoag.
       So remember when you are giving thanks this Thursday; that the turkey you are eating likely was not a part of the meal.  If it was, it was a small part.  Remember also that the leftovers that last two more days were a part of the first Thanksgiving.  Above all remember that this is the one holiday that unites us all as one people.  All of us American.  All of us feasting, and toasting our good fortunes.  All of us one Nation.  Not half blue and half red, but all Americans, all family.  For a while anyway.

God Bless.


P.S.  Here's a link if you want to do some extra curricular learning.

http://www.history.com/topics/thanksgiving

Why would you ever buy CFLs?

       If you didn't know you should go buy light bulbs.  Now.  Come back and read the rest of this when you are done.  Buy a decades worth, and pick me some up if they are on sale.  You will soon no longer be able to buy incandescent bulbs.  We've all heard the propaganda, good for the earth, blah, blah, blah.
       There was a government appointee on WGN recently extolling the virtues of CFL bulbs (compact fluorescent lamp) and LED bulbs (Light emitting diode).  He began by stating that the average American home, assuming 2 hours of lighting per room per day, spends eight whole dollars a year on electricity for lighting.  The host, obviously as confused as I was, asked if he didn't mean per month, or per room.  The "expert" said that no, he meany per year, but with CFL's you could cut that cost in half.  and with LEDs you could get that down to 2 dollars.
          I feel that might actually be right because you see, 100 watts of light in a room is a lot.  Your computer uses about 1200 watts.  Same for a TV.  The furnace or AC is around 4000.  But that aside lets do some math.  We all like math, right.  Most of our electric bill is spent on things that are not lighting.  Current rates are about 8 cent per KW/Hour.  That's 8 cent for each thousand watts, each hour.  So one hour of 100 watt lighting is .8 cent.  (1/10 of a KWH x 8 cent.)  2 hours per day = 1.6 cent.  x 365  = $5.84.  I don't think we all use 100 watt bulbs, so he might be right.

       On Amazon I found 60 watt, or 60 watt equivalent bulbs of each type.  Using the cheapest I could find I came up with: A 24 pack of incandescent bulbs for 11.87.  We'll go ahead and call that 12 dollars.  That makes them 50 cent per bulb.  (49.4 cent, actually)  (http://www.amazon.com/SYLVANIA-10489-60-Watt-130-Volt-Household/dp/B000BQPXFK/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1321579431&sr=8-3)  Found an off-brand for 42 cent per, but I wouldn't buy those.

       Next is the CFL, darling of congress.  8 pack for $8.75.  That's 1.09 per bulb.  These particular bulbs will not quite get you to the four dollar a year mark, but we'll give the benefit of the doubt.  (http://www.amazon.com/GE-13-Watt-Energy-SmartTM-replacement/dp/B000NISDNU/ref=sr_1_1?s=lamps-light&ie=UTF8&qid=1321579377&sr=1-1)

       Now lets look at the LED bulb.  One for $16.00.  Easy math at least.  (http://www.amazon.com/LED-Standard-Screw-Replacement-1020wh/dp/B004ORFCVM/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1321579471&sr=8-4)

       So for each year the cost is, assuming 8 bulbs (artificially low) , Standard: $11.92.  (8 bulbs plus cost/year)  CFL cost would be $12.72  Since they seem to last about as long as an incandescent that means they cost MORE.  Also the more bulbs you have the worse it looks for CFLs.  (Note: they are supposed to last longer but I have just not seen it.)  Next the LED bulb at $130.00 cost per year.   Now they are supposed to last a long time and for that price, they damned well better.  Like 11 times as long.

        I would also like to point out that all of these options have been available for a while.  No one was forcing us to buy incandescent bulbs, we did it because we liked the color of the light, and WE CAN DO MATH.  Unlike congress.

       We now come to the reasons why CFLs and LEDs are bad, other than the cost.  You see CFLs and LED lamps take more material to make.  Most CFLs are mercury vapor lamps, and technically have to be disposed of by a special waste handler, SINCE THEY ARE BAD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT.  And the color of the light they put out is an atrocity.  Also the flicker of a fluorescent can induce headaches in some, and migraines in others.  You can't put a CFL in your oven for a light, nor can you use an LED.  Neither is able to be used around some medical equipment (MRI scanners for example)   Congress, is there a plan "B" for that?

       But at least we FEEL like we are saving the planet.

The growing list of reasons I will never again buy anything made by GM

       My love affair with Buick came when a buddy sold me his '69 LeSabre.  Wrap around bumpers, six and a half feet wide, ugly dead GM green paint.  It had been in an accident and had a side dent as a result.  The windshield was cracked, it smelled like mold and exhaust inside.  That was because the exhaust manifold was also cracked.  The hood needed to have deck pins installed because the current latch, a bungee cord, was worn out.  The engine, I found out after trying, unsuccessfully, to replace the thermostat, was from a '73 Century.  If you want to see it, it looked a lot like the car in "My Hooptie" by Sir Mix-a-lot.  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKF0o42F7yw)   The rear end looked different on the LeSabre, that one is an Electra.  I loved that hunk of crap.
       When it came time to but my first new car I wanted another Buick.  The one I could afford was a Skylark, '95.  It ran well but certain things were off kilter.  I had to explain to my, then girlfriend-now wife, that the brake trouble light was nothing to worry about.  It went off all the time in wet weather, just turn off the car and restart and it went away.  Also the GM belt noise.  I see some of you nodding your heads.  The thing that bothered me most though came one mid-January day when I had to change a headlamp.
       I went to the local auto parts store, I always went to Murray's back then, and matched up my new headlamp from the computer.  "Oh good" I thought looking at it in the shiny new blister pack, "it's a twist out, five minutes and done."  I see some of you laughing.  Yeah, I found out that day.  See in order to get to the twist out, easy to replace lamp, you needed to remove the battery on one side, or the radiator overflow tank on the other.  So I needed a socket set.  And I froze my sorry butt off because it took about half an hour.
       Years later I owned a GM Sonoma, but was expecting my first child.  My wife did not like the idea of no back seat, so I was looking for a new car.  My brother was working at a dealership at the time and scored me a low mileage trade-in from a retired reporter who lived nearby.  10,000 miles, 10,000 dollars.  Three year old car.  Power everything, and I mean everything.  The passenger seat is six way power adjustable.  I was glad because my last Buick was trouble free for many years except for that idiot headlight.  Surely they had corrected such an egregious oversight in the last six years.  Also the LeSabre is a much larger car, surely they didn't need to compact the components so tightly.
       Tonight I noticed a headlamp out.  Wait for it.  I again got the new one from the store, then attempted to install it in the parking lot.  Twist out, unplug, plug in new, twist in.  Five minutes.  NOPE!  This time they made it so you have to take out the headlamp assembly just to access the lamps.  Please excuse the following caps lock.  HEY GM!  THE ENTIRE POINT OF TWIST OUT COMPONENTS IS QUICK REPLACEMENT!
       Also there is the whole government bailout, and you jerks at GM owe every single American Citizen a free frickin' car of their choice.  But that is another post.

I have never been shot at. Thank you Veterans.

       In my lifetime, nearly forty years on this earth, I have never been fired on.  I have never been subject to tyranny.  I have never been governed by someone who derives power from violence.  I have never been exposed to the horrors of war.  I have never so much as had to ration things so our soldiers had enough.  When I hold my rifle, it is at a rifle range, for the purpose of punching holes in a sheet of paper, for recreation.
       My point is: not only do I owe all veterans a debt of gratitude, I owe more than I can repay.  Unlike most of my whining blogger cohorts, I realize that the only reason I have the latitude to be able to communicate a message of my choosing, and only my choosing, subject to no regulation, is because of the sacrifice of others.  (Also I am aware of the difference between Veteran's day and Memorial day, unlike most of our politicians and media.)   In fact, you veterans have done such a good job protecting the rest of us, that most of us have never known the harsh realities of war.         
       My uncle, my Godfather, returned injured from service.  He was missing part of one leg and required a prosthetic.  I won't lie and say he never let it bother him.  I won't say he maintained his faith.  I will not sugar coat the truth of what happened.  I never knew him before then, but everyone who did says he was very much a changed man.  He died a few years ago.  The world is worse off for it.
       My Father returned from the same war physically whole.  He still doesn't talk about the fighting.  He shares many stories about the days in the Motor pool, but is silent on the rest.  My brothers and I asked him once why.  He said that someone who has seen combat simply has no frame of reference to the rest of us.  No amount of reading books, or watching movies, and certainly not playing video games, will ever give the rest of us an ability to relate. 
       I like to pretend I understand what he means.  I get what he's saying, but I have never experienced something that could not be explained to someone who hadn't also experienced it.  My Father is quite articulate when he wants to be.  So if he says he can't find a way to tell us about the things he experienced, I have to assume no one could. 
       So when, on this day devoted to you and the sacrifices you have made; I say "Thank you" to all of the veterans, it is with the full knowledge that everything I have, everything I am, and everything I have the right to achieve is because of you.  No matter what else you have learned know this: at least one person appreciates what you have done, what some of you still do.  Even if I am not capable of fully understanding it.  Thank you, and God bless.

Occupy this.

       The directionless masses forming the "occupy" movement have recently started wearing masks, as a symbol of their movement.  It was reported by the Ass-ociated Press that it is a "V for Vendetta" mask.  To those of us with an education it is a Guy Fawkes mask.  Not surprisingly named for Guy Fawkes.  Guy Fawkes was part of a group who attempted to bomb the House of Lords with casks of gunpowder placed beneath their chambers in 1605.  He was caught there, guarding the gunpowder on November 5th.  The plot, quite obviously, failed.       
       Which brings me to the main thrust of this missive.  Appropriateness.  See the mostly peaceful sit-ins of the occupiers, which amounts to nothing more than noisy complaining, is the exact opposite of a violent bombing of an entire branch of government.  One of these things is an action, the other whining.  On another note, were I to pick someone to represent a political movement I were a part of; I would pick someone who succeeded in what they were doing.  Guy Fawkes failed.
       Another group had taken to wearing Guy Fawkes masks.  You may have heard of them.  The Tea party.  Now I will not begrudge anyone a fashion statement, but given how politically disparate the two groups are, it is amazing they both feel a connection to this character.
       One positive to come of this though is the mask wearing.  If only we could get every idiot extremist to wear a Guy Fawkes mask...

Ron Paul stabs Joe Biden in desperate bid for attention.

       In an effort to get any billing at all despite winning yet another Republican straw poll; Ron Paul fatally stabbed Vice-President Joe Biden in the neck with an uncooked lasagna noodle that had been sharpened, according to anonymous sources.  Paul, who is consistently listed as an "also ran" by the media despite winning nearly every straw poll was apparently in a rage over the attention being received  by Herman Cain.
       "I just don't understand," Paul was quoted as saying. "something might have happened 20 friggin' years ago and this becomes an issue.  I thought we still had high unemployment.  I mean, What the hell?"
       Paul was detained by capital police for most of an afternoon before being released on his own recognizance, since members of congress are incapable of wrongdoing.  He was referring, of course to the flap over allegations of sexual harassment dating to when Cain was in charge of the National Association of People who Spit in Food.  In a news story broken by politico, it was disclosed that perhaps there was something that happened resulting in a settlement, which included a gag order.  One alleged victim, apparently completely ignorant of what a gag order entails, said she will come forward with her story anyway.
       This just in, apparently, not to be outdone, Rick Perry has challenged Mitt Romney to settle the Primary election "Texas Style."  Apparently this entails the two contenders taking turns kicking each other between the legs until one gives up.  Mr. Romney the current leader in every way except those involving numbers or math, could not be reached for comment.  Michele Bachmann, ever the voice of reason, stated "I don't believe that's how it works, but I guarantee a Bachmann victory if that is how it has to be."  She further stated that she looks forward to running against Mrs. Clinton in November.

       If you need me to tell you this was satire you are a sad, sad individual.